9th Dist GOP Win Complicates Redistricting

Republican Bob Turner's congressional victory in New York has altered assumptions about how the state's political boundaries will be redrawn next year, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Before Turner's victory Tuesday, it was widely assumed that his opponent, David Weprin, would prevail in the heavily Democratic district in Brooklyn and Queens and then step aside as the political leaders wiped the district from the map. The state is losing two of its 29 congressional seats because of population changes.

But Turner insists he will try to stay in Congress, no matter what the redistricting process in Albany produces.

Already, talks are under way in the state capital, where redistricting decisions will be made over the coming year. Lawmakers have hired their own lobbyists to try to get themselves the best possible deal.

Some political operatives reacted to Turner's win by saying it will be a boon for the Republican Party in the redistricting process.

If the pattern follows past years, the thinking goes, one Republican and one Democratic member of Congress will be forced out of a job. If Turner is that Republican, an otherwise vulnerable upstate Republican would be spared. Some political consultants already believe Turner's victory makes Rep. Kathy Hochul, a Western New York Democrat who won a Republican seat in June, more vulnerable in redistricting.

Yet that rationale assumes redistricting is like a chess board from which two pieces are simply removed.

In fact, redistricting requires redrawing of lines to hit a very specific population target. Nearly all the districts in the state will be changing, and growing geographically.

So even if Republicans are willing to "give up" Turner's district rather than lose another -- as many privately say they still are -- that does not necessarily worsen the prospects for Hochul, who is already in a Republican district, or improve the chances for an upstate Republican such as Syracuse's Ann Marie Buerkle, who won by a narrow margin.

The biggest wild card in the process, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has yet to make a move. Cuomo -- who must sign off on any new political map created by state lawmakers -- has called for an independent commission to redraw political lines.Read more: WSJ